The Future of the World by SBM}

The Future of the World by SBM}

Written By : Mr Sultan Bashir Mahmood

{ the last and second part of The Future of the World by SBM}


If these predictions are true then it means a very bad situation for earth, worse than the events of 1997 – 2007. However, research results by Drs. Leif Svalgaard and Yohsuke Kamide at the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University (Japan) and Edward W.Cliver at the Space Vehicles Directorate, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom Air Force Base (Massachusetts) suggest that the Sun may remain less active during the next solar cycle. They predict that the next solar maximum may be associated with a sunspot number of only 75, with an error of + 8. (Ref.. Research News, http://www.spacew.com/news/05Mar2005/index.php). If they are right then the situation will be much more milder on earth than that of the cycle 23.

From the above we see that so far long term predictions about cycle -24 are very uncertain. However my personal assessment supports NCAR. Historically it is seen that if the rate of fall from maximum to minimum of any cycle was slow then the following cycle has been generally much more turbulent than the previous one. Therefore, NCAR predictions are most likely to be true. In this case we expect very alarming events for the people on earth, beginning year 2008.

 In this case, the world is likely to experience awful political and military turmoil in the next twelve years, which after 2010 may get out of diplomatic and political hands and result into unprecedented wars over the globe. The crisis events could peak by 2012 and may remain at very dangerous situation for 2013 – 2016. Here we can see a parallel with the World War-I, exactly one century ago. After 2015 military options will exhaust, and diplomatic efforts could start having an edge. Peace should be back by 2017, when sun will be calm again Insha-Allah.

The positive signs are that period of the rising solar activity for 2007-2012 will be excellent for the intellectual achievements, technical innovations and entrepreneurship. Mankind may further conquer many new horizons of science & technology in diverse fields such as; space, communication, deep oceans, bioengineering; cloning and in health sectors etc. However these successes will be marred by frequent great natural and unnatural catastrophes, epidemics and lack of peace on earth. Weather conditions, all over the globe are also likely to remain very uncertain. 

Above predictions are based upon the Sun being very active according to the NCAR predictions. However if sun behaves according to the predictions of Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University (Japan) earth will then experience much more peaceful conditions. Anyway nothing is fate-accomplished. Based upon past experience we may hope for 80% accuracy if the Sun follows the assumed course. It is like weather forecasting and taken as a timely warning to take appropriate measures and precautions in view of the likely aggressive mood of Sun for the sunspot cycle-24. (Allah knows best)

Allah has subjected the Sun and the Moon
to (His Laws)
Each one runs (on its course) for an appointed term.
He does plan and regulate the affairs,
Explains (His) Signs in detail,
That you may believe with certainty
in the meeting with your Rabb. 13(2)


Sultan Bashir Mahmood (S.I)
April 2006, Islamabad.


Fig. 1: Past, Present and Future Sunspot Behaviour
 

NCAR scientists have succeeded in simulating the intensity of the sunspot cycle by developing a new computer model of solar processes. This figure compares observations of the past 12 cycles (above) with model results that closely match the sunspot peaks (below). The intensity level is based on the amount of the Sun’s visible hemisphere with sunspot activity. The NCAR team predicts the next cycle will be 30-50% more intense than the current cycle. (Figure by Mausumi Dikpati, Peter Gilman, and Giuliana de Toma, NCAR).

Fig. 2: Actual Sunspot Cycle – 23