THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD
BASED UPON THE SBM RULES FOR
2006 - 2018
IS HISTORY GOING TO REPEAT ITSELF AFTER 100 YEARS?
(Note: This article is reproduction of the original article printed in April-2006)
Predication of future with certainty is not possible for any human being. It is Allah, the Creator of the Worlds who knows best. Man can only interpret His signs. Sun is one of them. The book, “Cosmology and the Human Destiny……” was published in 1998 where I developed certain rules and regulations to predict the general overall situation in the world from the knowledge of the sunspot activity. These rules were derived from the statistical analysis of the historical events on earth with respect to the corresponding sunspot activity. For the sake of name, we may call these “SBM Rules” for prediction of futures from sunspot prediction (See Chapter-4). The idea is that if solar behaviour can be predicted then on this basis we could predict the future on earth also. It is like weather fore casting. Using the available predictions of NASA about Cycle-23 (1996-2007), I tried to gauze in the future of mankind for this period. That was putting the SBM rules to test. Time has proven the validation of these rules with remarkable accuracy.
I started serious research on this subject in 1992, after reading in a new paper that very unusual events of failure of electricity in New York, USA and Quebec in Canada were probably caused by the high solar magnetic storms in those days. My thesis was, if solar storms can influence working of our computers then why should they not affect the working of human mind, consequently, the human behavior. After all, our brains are far more sensitive than the electronic gadgetry. In those days I was extremely busy in my official assignments and needed a hobby for my spare times to keep my mind fresh. Thus I began to study the world history with reference to sunspot activity; and in the process tried to develop some relationship between sunspot activity and corresponding important historical events. Consequently, the rules given in the chapter-4 of this book were arrived at. According to these rules, SBM Crisis Factor is directly proportional to the product of the maximum sunspot value, time above 80% of the maximum activity, and fall period from maximum to the beginning of the next cycle; and is inversely proportional to the rise time from the minimum to the maximum of the predicted cycle. However, it magnifies many times in the spring and autumn months when magnetic effects of Sun and earth get integrated together. For the sake of reference we may give it the name SBM Spring and Autumn effects.
From the then available NASA data SBM Crisis Factor for cycle-23 was 12500 that indeed was quiet high. However, luckily the actual behavior of sun fell short of the predicted one. The maximum sunspots rose to 170 only in May 2000 against the predicted value of 234. There was also a secondary sunspot maximum of 150 in January 2003. Period above 80% maximum activity remained about 36 months, and rise time from minimum to maximum was also about 36 months. However, fall period from the max to the min is expected to prolong till end of 2007 i.e. about 60 months. Therefore the actual SBM Crisis Factor for cycle-23 was about 10000 i.e. 20% less than the predicted value. But even this is very high. For a relatively peaceful sunspot cycle SBM Crisis Factor should be about 5000 to 7000.
Therefore, as predicted, the earthly events during the sunspot cycle-23 remained abnormally violent and world peace suffered very badly. It brought with it great misery, wars and terrorist attacks of untold magnitude rarely experienced in history. It began with the ghastly attack on World Trade Centre in New York, USA on 9-11-2001, which was the time of great turbulence in the Sun also. As reported in the media, (The News April 3, 2006 Islamabad) planning of attack had begun earlier in 1999. This is the period when sunspot activity had started rising sharply. By 29-3-2001 sunspot activity had reached its peak value of 170. Thereafter, for a short while, Sun experienced some calmness between May - July 2001. However SBM Autumn effects took over in August 2001, reaching their peak in September 2001, and we see the
horror of WTC. Turbulent solar atmosphere and magnetic activity continued even thereafter. In this turbulent solar atmosphere on the 8th October 2001 USA attacked Afghanistan with unparallel ferocious bombing. In January 2003, Sun experienced another burst of Sunspot maximum of 150. This also corresponds to violent air attacks on Afghanistan and fall of Taliban regime. At the same time we also see building of sharp tension over Iraq, which reached to breaking point due to SBM Spring Effects. In this environment, Iraq was attacked from ground and air, in March 2003. Thereafter, we see the decreasing intensity of military strikes with the declining sunspot activity in the heavens. But the peace process has been very slow. It could be attributed to slow fall rate of sunspot cycle-23, which is expected to attain its minimum by Mid-2007. The overall peace situation in the world therefore should also improve after April 2006, except for the SBM Autumn Effects in August – October 2006. On the overall we may predict that tension over nuclear crisis of Iran which is threatening world peace should settle down in the coming months, and remain so for next one year. Situation may however become very hot again from February 2008.
Recounting the events in Pakistan, as the solar activity was rising to its maximum; in October 1999 civil government of Mr. Nawaz Sahrif was replaced by a Military Rule in a dramatic manner. War in Afghanistan threatened peace here also. As has been said already, on the overall, world situation for 1999-2004 remained very hot everywhere on earth. However lucky for mankind, it did not go out of control, because Sun has been milder than the assumed sunspot values in our calculations.
Cycle – 24 and Our Future 2006 to 2008.
As said already minimum of cycle-23 is expected to be delayed till end of 2007 and Cycle-24 will thus begin late. It means that the harsh impact of cycle-23 on the earthly events will continue lingering longer. However, except for the SBM Spring and Autumn effects, situation in Afghanistan and Iraq is expected to improve with time till 2008. In Pakistan, trouble in the province of Balochistan and Northern Areas, will also cool down gradually. On the whole, period between now till January 2008 will be a good time for diplomatic initiatives to succeed every where on earth. We may rule out chances of major military showdowns in this period. We also hope for peaceful elections in Pakistan, provided they are held before 2008 and they can avoid the Spring and Autumn effects. Chances of the success of the long marches, rallies and mob movements’ are seen minimum in the next two years except for the seasonal outbursts in Spring and Autumn.
On the economic front, the 2006-2008 depressing phase of sunspots activity is likely to cause most economies to suffer adversely, Inflation will rise and business will be uncertain in this period. However, it should pick up from February 2008 at a rapid rate with the increasing sunspot activity. There are good chances for entrepreneurs to succeed thereafter.
THE WORLD BETWEEN 2008-2018
On long term basis, i.e., from 2008 to 2018, if we take into account the predictions made by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for the sunspot cycle 24 situation on earth seems extremely hard. It is predicted by NCAR that the next sunspot cycle may be 30-50% stronger than the last one and begin as much as a year late. The predictive Flux-Transport Dynamo Model is enabling NCAR scientists to predict that the next solar cycle, known as Cycle-24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5% of the visible surface of the Sun. The scientists expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about 6 to 12 months later than a cycle would normally start, and is likely to reach its peak about 2012, and see its fall to minimum in 2017. (Ref. http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml)
If these predictions are true then it means a very bad situation for earth, worse than the events of 1997 – 2007. However, research results by Drs. Leif Svalgaard and Yohsuke Kamide at the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University (Japan) and Edward W.Cliver at the Space Vehicles Directorate, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom Air Force Base (Massachusetts) suggest that the Sun may remain less active during the next solar cycle. They predict that the next solar maximum may be associated with a sunspot number of only 75, with an error of + 8. (Ref.. Research News, http://www.spacew.com/news/05Mar2005/index.php). If they are right then the situation will be much more milder on earth than that of the cycle 23.
From the above we see that so far long term predictions about cycle -24 are very uncertain. However my personal assessment supports NCAR. Historically it is seen that if the rate of fall from maximum to minimum of any cycle was slow then the following cycle has been generally much more turbulent than the previous one. Therefore, NCAR predictions are most likely to be true. In this case we expect very alarming events for the people on earth, beginning year 2008.
In this case, the world is likely to experience awful political and military turmoil in the next twelve years, which after 2010 may get out of diplomatic and political hands and result into unprecedented wars over the globe. The crisis events could peak by 2012 and may remain at very dangerous situation for 2013 – 2016. Here we can see a parallel with the World War-I, exactly one century ago. After 2015 military options will exhaust, and diplomatic efforts could start having an edge. Peace should be back by 2017, when sun will be calm again Insha-Allah.
The positive signs are that period of the rising solar activity for 2007-2012 will be excellent for the intellectual achievements, technical innovations and entrepreneurship. Mankind may further conquer many new horizons of science & technology in diverse fields such as; space, communication, deep oceans, bioengineering; cloning and in health sectors etc. However these successes will be marred by frequent great natural and unnatural catastrophes, epidemics and lack of peace on earth. Weather conditions, all over the globe are also likely to remain very uncertain.
Above predictions are based upon the Sun being very active according to the NCAR predictions. However if sun behaves according to the predictions of Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University (Japan) earth will then experience much more peaceful conditions. Anyway nothing is fate-accomplished. Based upon past experience we may hope for 80% accuracy if the Sun follows the assumed course. It is like weather forecasting and taken as a timely warning to take appropriate measures and precautions in view of the likely aggressive mood of Sun for the sunspot cycle-24. (Allah knows best)
Allah has subjected the Sun and the Moon
to (His Laws)
Each one runs (on its course) for an appointed term.
He does plan and regulate the affairs,
Explains (His) Signs in detail,
That you may believe with certainty
in the meeting with your Rabb. 13(2)
Sultan Bashir Mahmood (S.I)
April 2006, Islamabad.
Fig. 1: Past, Present and Future Sunspot Behaviour
NCAR scientists have succeeded in simulating the intensity of the sunspot cycle by developing a new computer model of solar processes. This figure compares observations of the past 12 cycles (above) with model results that closely match the sunspot peaks (below). The intensity level is based on the amount of the Sun’s visible hemisphere with sunspot activity. The NCAR team predicts the next cycle will be 30-50% more intense than the current cycle. (Figure by Mausumi Dikpati, Peter Gilman, and Giuliana de Toma, NCAR).
Fig. 2: Actual Sunspot Cycle – 23
A Unique Perspective on Terrorism
Farhat Ullah Babar
Different explanations have been offered to explain why, despite a massive international war for the past several years, the end of terrorism does not seem to the coming any nearer.
General Musharraf says that the underlying causes of terrorism need to be understood, and then orders banning a few modaris. Prime Minister Tony Blair confesses that no security measures would preclude another terrorist attack. Afghan President Hamid Karzai says that terrorism will persist as long as governments employ extremism as a tool of power. President Bush thinks that the Americans are attacked because the “extremists are against our freedoms, democracy any ways of life”. Some identify terrorists with long flowing beards, white robes and green turbans – but the London bombers had none of those traits. Some believe that poverty and unemployment are the root cause, but offer no explanation as to why hundreds of millions of the destitute masses have not turned to terrorism.
Is there any other perspective from which terrorism may be seen and understood? Yes there is.
A science book, published towards the close of the last century, predicted terror activities on earth due mainly to increased emission of energy by our Sun. based purely on scientific data, the book predicted hyper human activity at the turn of the century characterized by wars and serious disturbances in human behaviour. Title, Cosmology and Human Destiny: Impact of Sunspots on Earthly Events, is no fiction; it is based on a scientific analysis of the Sun’s behaviour and its impact on human life.
It was first printed in Pakistan in 1998, barely a few months before Kargil – the mother of all misadventures which defied rational thinking, to the extent that it can only be explained as a serious disturbance in human behaviour and dangerous hyperactivity of its planners.
The book begins by stating the obvious about the Sun’s profound impact on mankind’s life on earth. As the source of all life, the Sun gives us our days and night, our weathers and our foods and fruits, it avers.
In 1610, scientists first discovered that occasionally some darks patches, called “sunspots”, appeared on the Sun’s surface. These patches indicated that some changes were taking place in the pattern of energy emitted by the Sun.
Two hundred years later, scientists observed a strange phenomenon. The Sun spots followed a mysterious and unexplained pattern, regularly appearing in a cyclic pattern of rise and fall. Scientists call this heightened solar activity “Sun storms”.
Several years ago, scientists were puzzled when some electric power stations in Canada and space satellites launched by the US suddenly and mysteriously failed. A deeper study revealed that these ghost-like events corresponded with the peaking of Sun storms. Investigations showed that during Sun storms, the energy released affected the sensitive electronics computer chips and disrupted their operation. Study of Sun storms has become a serious subject of research and the US space agency NASA has now set up a Solar and Heliopheric Observatory (SOHO) in space to predict the Sun’s activity and its impact on space flights.
If sun storms emitting protons and electrons affect sensitive computers in power plants, is there a possibility that it would also affect the human mind, which is also like a computer, by bombarding it with protons and electrons? The human brain is a complex electrical machine with billions of neurons carrying extremely small electrical currents. Do the solar storms, known for causing disruption in less complex computers, also cause similar disruptions in the human mind? The answer to the question, according to Cosmology and Human Destiny, is yes, they do.
The book has tabulated scientific data about Sun storms during the past 250 years when the first scientific data was collected in when the first scientific data was collected in 1755. It also scanned archives and history books for information about the nature of human activity during periods of solar storms.
The book has painstakingly gathered scientific data about Sun storms from 1750 to 1990 and juxtaposed it with laboriously researched major historical events during the period. It concluded that the human mind would behave irrationally due to Sun storms causing death and destruction on a phenomenal scale during the next decade or so.
It abounds in examples. Wars and destruction in the past have coincided with solar storms. When the sunspots were most numerous, in 1979, the Soviet Union attacked and occupied Afghanistan. The book also claims that the Soviet’s 1989, defeat in Afghanistan coincided with another peak period of sunspots.
The dismemberment of USSR, unification of East and West Germany and the US-Iraq war, all corresponded with increased solar storms.
Going back in history, World War I broke out at the time of a sudden upsurge in sunspots in August 1913. Even the ups and downs in the War coincided with the months of higher solar activity in those turbulent years, or so the book says.
Furthermore, the book reminds, in 1938, an abnormal solar flare, speeding 450 miles per second, swept through the Sun’s surface, beaming tremendous radiation charged particles and magnetic force towards the Earth. This period coincides with World War II and the Spanish Civil War. When the atom bomb was used against Japan, in August 1945, the Earth was so oriented that it was exposed to, the maximum to the Sun’s magnetic field.
Basing itself on NASA’s scientific reports, Cosmology and Human Destiny asserted that, beginning in 1998, the Sun would beam to, wards Earth a degree of energy never recorded in history. It warned, in 1998, against high levels of turbulence and turmoil. According to it, the world was to soon witness charged emotions, agitated minds and aggressive attitudes of mankind due to unprecedented solar storms.
Pakistan, India and countries of the region were served a particularly stern warning. I warned that Pakistan may witness a repeat in1971-like events and pleaded, “The situation requires great caution and statesmanship both from the civil and military leaderships of the country”. Apparently, forewarned is fore armed.
And who is the author of this fiction-like scientific work on terror tendency? Not an astrologer or a stargazer; the author is a professional nuclear engineer of high caliber, who served the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission for nearly four decades and has made great contributions in the field of Nuclear power development and enrichment.